‘It has been widely argued that if oil prices remain high, the Northern Alberta Oil Sands will find their way to market, irrespective of whether the Keystone XL pipelinei s built or not. In this note I show that until 2030 the supply of Western Canadian heavy crude is projected to be significantly influenced by the timing of which of the currently proposed pipelines get built. The Canadian petroleum industry projects that the supply of oil sands based heavy crudes will almost quadruple by 2030. Even if all currently proposed pipelines are built, there will be a need of additional transport capacity roughly one and half times current day production. This must either be met by additional low cost pipeline infrastructure or high cost rail/barge… These calculations suggest that Keystone XL is indeed a key requirement for Canadian producers to be able to meet their projected growth path. I suggest that not permitting Keystone XL will keep at least 1 billion barrels of Alberta heavy crude in the ground.’ ~ Maximilian Auffhammer

See the full article here, or Haas blog post